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Can somebody explain for me why there is such a disconnect

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US Senator Barack Obama campaigning in New Ham...

Image via Wikipedia

between polls in this final week of the campaign for the US presidency.

First of all there is Reuters/Zogby:

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democrat Barack Obama has a 4-point national lead over Republican John McCain as they head into the final week of the presidential campaign, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.

Obama leads McCain by 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in the three-day national tracking poll, a slight dip from his 5-point advantage on Monday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

Then there is Pew Research:

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

Then there is Nate Silver

Are they talking about the same political race?

So many things seem out of synch in this last week of the campaign! A bit like this interaction with Fox News yesterday.

Yes I want an Obama/Biden victory, but what will happen if he doesn’t win and falls short during this last week?

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