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Posts Tagged ‘Nouriel Roubini

Here’s one of the reasons we stay in China!

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History of China
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My wife and I are not exactly flourishing financially  here in Dalian, but we are living better than we did and can in Vancouver. I am busier with more rewarding time being spent with Globish in China, while she works on developing her Xpat Help activities and network. We are even thinking of buying a car to make it easier to deal with training gigs in the further-away places of DDA and the HTZone.

Reading these words by Nouriel Roubini about the shape of depression/recession in the West sort of cements this case in my mind!

Finally, policymakers are running out of tools. Additional monetary quantitative easing will make little difference, there is little room for further fiscal stimulus in most advanced economies, and the ability to bail out financial institutions that are too big to fail – but also too big to be saved – will be sharply constrained.

So, as the optimists’ delusional hopes for a rapid V-shaped recovery evaporate, the advanced world will be at best in a long U-shaped recovery, which in some cases – the eurozone and Japan – may be long enough to stretch into an L-shaped near-depression. Avoiding double dip recession will be difficult.

In such a world, recovery in the stronger emerging markets – the great hope for the global economy – will suffer, because no country is an island economically. Indeed, growth in many emerging-market economies – starting with China – is highly dependent on retrenching advanced economies.

Fasten your seat belts for a very bumpy ride.

But the point is that living conditions and economic optimism is better in China than almost elsewhere, except India and Indonesia.

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Written by BobG in Dalian & Vancouver

2010/07/24 at 12:23